We investigate quantitative implications of precautionary demand for money for business cycle dynamics of velocity and other nominal aggregates. Accounting for such dynamics is a standing challenge in monetary macroeconomics: standard business cycle models that have incorporated money have...

The emerging consensus in monetary policy and business cycle analysis is that money aggregates are not useful as an intermediate target for monetary policy or as an information variable. The uselessness of money as an intermediate target is driven by empirical research that suggests that money...

Arrow argues that the biggest failures of economic theory are: our failure to explain the business cycle; the missing explanations for the size of fluctuations of prices; our failure to explain the causes of growth and of the spread of innovation. He then discusses several of the existing...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

This paper is the introduction to the forthcoming book, Recent Developments in Alternative Finance: Empirical Assessments and Economic Implications, Proceedings of Second International Symposium in Computational Economics and Finance. The conference was held in Tunis, Tunisia, March 15-17, 2012....

We investigate quantitative implications of precautionary demand for money for business cycle dynamics of velocity and other nominal aggregates. Accounting for such dynamics is a standing challenge in monetary macroeconomics: standard business cycle models that have incorporated money have...

This paper presents a simple model in which the learning behavior of agents generates fluctuations in money demand and possibly causes a prolonged depression. We consider a stochastic Money-in-Utility model, where agents receive utility from holding money only when a liquidity shock (e.g., a...

In the U.S. business cycle, a monetary aggregate consisting predominantly of sight deposits strongly leads output, time deposits strongly lag output, and a monetary aggregate consisting of both types of deposits tends to be coincident with the cycle. Such movements are observed both before and...