Futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange are the most liquid instruments for trading crude oil, which is the world’s most actively traded physical commodity. Under normal market conditions, traders can easily find counterparties for their trades, resulting in an efficient market...

Conventional time series analysis, focusing exclusively on a time series at a given scale, lacks the ability to explain the nature of the data generating process. A process equation that successfully explains daily price changes, for example, is unable to characterize the nature of hourly price...

We study how banking competition may affect the stability of banking systems. We develop our study by expanding the failure-determinant methodology to include panel-data techniques and by controlling the effects of financial structure and development. We use indicators for 47 countries between...

This article validates the chaotic behavior in the Argentinean, Brazilian, Canadian, Chilean, American, Peruvian and Mexican Stock Markets using the MERVAL, BOVESPA, S&P TSX COMPOSITE, IPSA, IGPA, S&P 500, DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS, NASDAQ, IGBVL and IPC Stock Indexes respectively. The results of...

This paper examines stock returns volatility in the Pakistani equity market. Using daily stock prices of 36 companies, 8 sector indices, and the general market index, the AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) class of models was applied. The analyses suggest that one of the...

In this paper we test for deterministic chaos (i.e., nonlinear deterministic processes which look random) in seven Mont Belview, Texas hydrocarbon markets, using monthly data from 1985:1 to 1996:12--the markets are those of ethane, propane, normal butane, iso-butane, naptha, crude oil, and...

This paper undertakes a comprehensive evaluation of the efficacy of firm-specific trading halts in the Malaysian context. The paper examines a total of 291 trading halts that occurred over the five year period 2000 to 2004. In addition to examining the three variables commonly impacted by...

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and Hidden Semi-Markov Models (HSMMs) provide flexible, general-purpose models for univariate and multivariate time series. Although interest in HMMs and HSMMs has continuously increased during the past years, and numerous articles on theoretical and practical aspects...

We explore the relative weekly stock market volatility forecasting performance of the linear univariate MIDAS regression model based on squared daily returns vis-a-vis the benchmark model of GARCH(1,1) for a set of four developed and ten emerging market economies. We first estimate the two...

What is the effect of either European Central Bank and Federal Reserve monetary policies on the Italian Index Mibtel? This paper aims to evaluate the impact of monetary policy announcements of the most important Central Banks on the volatility of returns which have been considered at both...