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The concept of unforeseen events is considered as a part of a hypothesis of uncertain future. The applications of the consequences of the hypothesis in utility and prospect theories are reviewed. Partially unforeseen events and their role in forecasting are analyzed. Preliminary preparations are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011110243
. This holds under ambiguity, but not in a comparison treatment under risk. …Abstract Popular models for decision making under ambiguity assume that people use not one but multiple priors. This …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011258993
under uncertainty and imprecision risk. In the fifth part fuzzy probabilistic sets are applied for actuarial mathematics. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011260964
replacement and a different color wins in each draw. The 50-50 risky urn turns out to have the highest risk conceivable among all … of SEU share the same predictions in our design, for any first-order risk attitude. Yet, we observe that substantial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008833271
possible market capacities effectively occur with probability 1/2 but participants are only told that there is uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008646848
Decisions of investing in sovereign assets involve both risk and ambiguity. Ambiguity arises from unknown elements … characterizing the value of a generic sovereign. In presence of ambiguity, ambiguity-averse investors are prone to pay for obtaining … summary information such as ratings which reduces ambiguity. Ambiguity-neutral and ambiguity-averse investors, then, make …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011107677
risk, subjects who score high on ambiguity tolerance explain some of the remainder of trusting behavior. …Despite intensive research there is no clear evidence for a link between lottery risk preferences and risk involved in … trusting others. We argue that this is partially due to a misalignment of the underlying sources of risk. Trusting is giving up …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011113599
We analyze ecosystem management under `unmeasurable' Knightian uncertainty or ambiguity which, given the uncertainties … characterizing ecosystems, might be a more appropriate framework relative to the classic risk case (measurable uncertainty). This …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005790301
discuss the claims of Andreoni and Sprenger (2012b) that "risk preferences are not time preferences" and assert that this may …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011260062
The principle of uncertain future: the probability of a future event contains an (hidden) uncertainty. The first … an uniform solution of the underweighting of high and the overweighting of low probabilities, of the Allais paradox, risk … preferences, of ambiguity aversion, of the Ellsberg paradox, etc. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005835901