A new non-causality test based on the notion of distance between ARMA models is proposed in this paper. The advantage of this test is that it can be used in possible integrated and cointegrated systems, without pre-testing for unit roots and cointegration. The Monte Carlo experiments indicate...

This study explores the volatility models and evaluates the quality of one-step ahead forecasts of volatility constructed by (1) GARCH, (2) TGARCH, (3) Risk metrics and (4) Historical volatility. Volatility forecasts suggest that TGARCH performs relatively best in term of MSPE, followed by...

A certain spectrum, indexed by a\in[0,\infty], of upper bounds P_a(X;x) on the tail probability P(X\geq x), with P_0(X;x)=P(X\geq x) and P_\infty(X;x) being the best possible exponential upper bound on P(X\geq x), is shown to be stable and monotonic in a, x, and X, where x is a real number and X...

This paper presents a methodology to measure vulnerability to asset-poverty. Using repeated cross-section data, age cohort decomposition techniques focusing on second-order moments can be used to identify and estimate the variance of shocks on assets and, therefore, the probability of being poor...

This paper evaluates the role of participating in poultry production on household income and rural poverty in Mzimba district, Malawi. The study utilizes cross-sectional farm level household data collected in 2011. The paper computes income-based poverty measures and investigates their...

The paper examines the partial pro poor orderings for different growth curves and sets of Equally Distributed Equivalent growth rate dominance. A new pro poor growth curve as the of change of Gini social welfare function, based on the quantiles of logarithmic income, has been proposed. It has...

Leshno and Levy (2002) extend stochastic dominance (SD) theory to almost stochastic dominance (ASD) for {\it most} decision makers. When comparing any two prospects, Guo, et al.\ (2013) find that there will be ASD relationship even there is only very little difference in mean, variance,...

Optimism bias is a consistent feature associated with truck toll forecasts, à la Standard & Poor’s and the NCHRP synthesis reports. Given the persistent problem, two major sources of this bias are explored. In particular, the ignorance of operating cost as a demand-side factor and lack of...

The purposes of this study were to present the current situation of poverty, economic growth, and economic development for five selected countries in Latin America and to examine the relationship between poverty, economic growth, and economic development through traditional log-linear regression...

This note documents the method for calculating Gini Coefficients in R using 2000 Census data. Many people have use this method for computing Ginis for ZCTA’s for example. You can find these estimates for both the 50 states, as well as all US counties and additional information about Gini...