This paper investigates the trend in the monthly real price of oil between 1990 and 2008 with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. Trend and volatility are estimated jointly with the maximum likelihood estimation. There is long persistence in the variance of...

Factor proportions trade theory focuses on wage adjustments to product prices and factor endowments estimated directly for the first time in the present paper with a structural vector auto regression. Yearly data cover the US wage, labor force, fixed capital assets, and relative prices of...

This paper estimates exchange rate sensitivity of US cotton imports for three textile producers with floating or regularly adjusting exchange rates since the 1970s, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Thailand. The cotton import market model includes mill use, US production cost, and an alternate supply....

This paper investigates evidence on the effect of dollar depreciation on the US tourism balance of trade. Export revenue and import spending functions are estimated separately with structural vector autoregressive methods to better capture the dynamic adjustment to exchange rate shocks....