In this paper, we examine the directional predictability of excess stock market returns by lagged excess returns from industry portfolios and a number of other commonly used variables by means of dynamic probit models. We focus on the directional component of the market returns because, for...

The liquidity problems that appeared on the interbank money markets during the financial crisis caused an increased volatility of the interbank interest rates, especially after September 2008. Banking institutions from the Euro zone have avoided the mutual funding, which resulted in a reduction...

We study the behavior of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the dirham against the European currencies (the EU15), over the period 1960–2000. We measure the volatility using standard deviation, and the misalignments as the difference between the actual REER and the equilibrium REER...

In this paper we suggest panel data unit root tests which allow for a structural breaks in the individual effects or linear trends of panel data models. This is done under the assumption that the disturbance terms of the panel are heterogeneous and serially correlated. The limiting distributions...

This study examines whether or not the convergence of per capita output—which is categorized as catching-up and long-run convergence, defined by Oxley and Greasley (1995)—exists within Asian newly industrializing economies (Asian NIEs), namely, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan....

In financial time series analysis structural breaks indicate a fundamental change in market processes. Therefore, those breaks are of great interest for portfolio managers. Knowledge about a structural break could help managers in the orientation of their portfolio. The classical methods of...

Experience from the United Kingdom and the United States suggests that expert evidence is often reshaped and repackaged by governments so that it supports existing policy rather than informing policy decisions. The Australian government based its decision to introduce FuelWatch on evidence in...

This study tests the price linkage among the U.S. major energy sources, considering structural breaks in time series. We use the Johansen cointegration method and find that only weak linkage sustains among the NYMEX WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, coal, natural gas,...

The adhesion to the European Union in January 2007 induced significant changes in the Romania’s foreign trade. In the new circumstances, the Romanian firms have to face an increased competition, but they could also fructify the opportunities of the European single market. Other changes could...

This paper considers the embedded dynamics of conditional volatility in five selected exchange rates vis-à-vis Indian Rupee. Specifically, it explores the possible asymmetric response of volatility towards good and bad news and inquires whether it is sensitive to breaks in volatility. Using a...