The current crisis causes numerous economic uncertainties, such as a break-up of the European currency union, and a Greek exit from the euro area to boost the competitiveness by means of devaluation of national currency. When a factor such as exchange rate is expected to have a significant...

As shown in the recent BCBS papers market and credit risks could reinforce each other in certain circumstances, meaning the sum of the parts might be less than an estimate of risk that takes into account the interactions between the two. Market risk factors have an ambiguous impact on the firms'...

While not being widespread, stress tests of credit risk are not new in the Argentine financial system, neither for financial intermediaries nor for the Central Bank. However, they are more often based on rule-of-thumb approaches than on systematic, model based methodologies. The objective of...

We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level using a large set of indicators (regional, national and international) for the years 1998 to 2013. We explicitly use the ragged-edge data structure and consider the different information sets faced by a regional forecaster within each...

This paper presents evidence that accounting (or flow-of-fund) macroeconomic models helped anticipate the credit crisis and economic recession. Equilibrium models ubiquitous in mainstream policy and research did not. This study identifies core differences, traces their intellectual pedigrees,...

This paper presents the logic and structure of a small and parsimonious macroeconometric model designed for output gap and potential growth estimation in a data-poor environment. Such results can be useful in calculating the cyclically adjusted budget balances which are a key indicator for...

Article introduces the notion of information money fields of the cyclic oscillations of the economic variables in the nonlinear dynamic economic system for the first time, and presents an original research on the Ledenyov theory on the information money fields of the cyclic oscillations of the...

Article introduces the notion of information money fields of the cyclic oscillations of the economic variables in the nonlinear dynamic economic system for the first time, and presents an original research on the Ledenyov theory on the information money fields of the cyclic oscillations of the...

This paper analyzes the effects of macroeconomic shocks on the government debt dynamics in an open economy using the analytical framework of Favero and Giavazzi (2007) extended to an open economy. Applying this modeling approach to the data for the Czech Republic, the authors derive some...

I estimate short and long-run price elasticities of U.S. natural gas supply and demand. For robustness, the estimates are based on data of varying frequencies and samples, some of which include the recent U.S. shale gas boom. Aside from the numbers themselves, there are two main conclusions. As...