Predicting the timing of currency and banking crises is likely to remain an elusive task for academics, financial market participants, and policymakers. Few foresaw the Asian crises and fewer still could have imagined their severity. However, recent events have highlighted the importance of...

Exchange rate management has become a hot topic in academic circles examining the merits of fixed versus floating regimes. The 1997-98 Asian crisis has refocused attention on the exchange rate management of East Asian countries. Most views expressed are critical of the pre-crisis US dollar peg...

This article examined the exchange rate movements and their impact on the external balances in the 1990s in the selected ASEAN countries. The main findings are as follows. The real effective exchange rate (REER) - the relative prices against the world competitors - shows a trend of appreciation...

This article seeks an empirical evidence for the existence of the J-curve phenomenon both in the short-run and long-run for Turkey over the period 1980-2005. The bounds testing cointegration approach is employed to estimate the trade balance model. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis...

This paper examines the long run dynamics of exchange rate and bilateral export-import flows between China and Malaysia. Our analysis contributed in using high frequency monthly data for the recent period from January 1990 to January 2008, based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bound...

During the 2007-2009 financial crisis the foreign exchange market was characterized by large volatility and wide currency swings. In this paper we evaluate whether during the period of the Great Recession there has been a structural break in the relationship between fundamentals and exchange...

In this paper, we derive the dynamics and assess the economic value of currency speculation by formalizing the concept of a trader inaction range. We show that exchange rate returns comprise a time-varying risk-premium and that uncovered interest parity (UIP) holds in a speculative sense. The...

In our paper, we investigate the exchange rate determination mechanism of TL/US$ for the 1987Q1-2006Q4 period using quarterly observations. Following the monetary model exchange rate determination based on the economic fundamentals, the multivariate Johansen-Juselius type co-integrating modeling...

This paper investigates the determinants of forecast heterogeneity in the Yen-US dollar market using a panel data set from Consensus Economics. Regardless of the particular model specification and consideration of control variables we find that exchange rate misalignments increase forecast...

Menu prices from 13 international restaurant franchises that operate in both El Paso and Ciudad Juarez are utilized to examine the behavior over time of the peso/dollar exchange rate. Parametric and non-parametric tests indicate that the price ratio alone provides a biased estimator of the...