For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...

Output gap is generally used in assessing both the inflationary pressures and the cyclical position of a nation’s economy. However, this variable is not observable and must be estimated. In this paper, we accomplish two tasks. First, we estimate the output gap for the United Arab Emirates...

In this paper we introduce an analyzing procedure using the Kullback-Leibler information criteria (KLIC) as a statistical tool to evaluate and compare the predictive abilities of possibly misspecified density forecast models. The main advantage of this statistical tool is that we use the...

Pepper is an important agriculture commodity especially for the state of Sarawak. It is important to forecast its price, as this could help the policy makers in coming up with production and marketing plan to improve the Sarawak’s economy as well as the farmers’welfare. In this paper, we...

We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level using a large set of indicators (regional, national and international) for the years 1998 to 2013. We explicitly use the ragged-edge data structure and consider the different information sets faced by a regional forecaster within each...

This paper presents evidence that accounting (or flow-of-fund) macroeconomic models helped anticipate the credit crisis and economic recession. Equilibrium models ubiquitous in mainstream policy and research did not. This study identifies core differences, traces their intellectual pedigrees,...

Article introduces the notion of information money fields of the cyclic oscillations of the economic variables in the nonlinear dynamic economic system for the first time, and presents an original research on the Ledenyov theory on the information money fields of the cyclic oscillations of the...

Article introduces the notion of information money fields of the cyclic oscillations of the economic variables in the nonlinear dynamic economic system for the first time, and presents an original research on the Ledenyov theory on the information money fields of the cyclic oscillations of the...

The formation of the European Union (EU) is the one of the biggest political – economic events of the last 50 years. The aim of this study is to develop EU economy functioning system dynamic model. Main research method is system dynamics. General scheme of EU economy system dynamic model is...

This document compares the proprieties of different empirical methodologies to estimate the output gap and the potential output (non-observable variables of interest to the design of monetary policy and macroeconomic analysis) using Dominican Republic as a case of study. The output gap and...