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This paper proposes to assess the usefulness of central banks forward guidance since the start of the global economic crisis. Using a novel approach, the Wordscores methodology, we reveal that since 2009, central banks do provide a temporal guidance of their accommodative policy that can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011107997
This paper provides an extension of Morris and Shin's (2002) model (Morris, S., Shin, H. S. (2002). Social value of public information. The American Economic Review, 92(5), 1521-1534.). It considers an "interpretation bias" of the public signal sent by central banks such as the ECB or the FED....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011109133
to forecast money supply in India. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008587863
The demand for cash balances of financial intermediaries that establish contractual liabilities with credit-sensitive customers is characterized. As stated by Merton, the success of the business activities of such firms crucially depends on their credit quality, and hence, they are obliged to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013160192
This paper introduces a new monetary theory. A simple model is described in which a central bank sets the interest rate in a way that the excess demand for credits equals the preferred amount of money. It is compatible with the Keynesian liquidity preference theory and the neoclassical loanable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011156995
There is an extensive historical dataset on real GDP per capita prepared by Angus Maddison. This dataset covers the period since 1870 with continuous annual estimates in developed countries. All time series for individual economies have a clear structural break between 1940 and 1950. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011111323
After more than two decades of inflation targeting in the world, it is important to evaluate if the adoption of this regime in a relevant developing country contributed to the creation of a better environment for the process of entrepreneurs' expectations formation. Brazil is part of an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011271311
Continuous growth in Islamic finance calls for studying the framework in which the monetary policy maker (i.e., central bank) performs its functions. Central banks in Muslim countries are using various instruments for monetary policy purpose including interest rate. As a result, Islamic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008543051
economic fundamentals this result is reversed for the two-quarter forecast horizon. Results from a modified model with regime …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005835466
This paper uses real-time data for the U.S. to estimate out-of-sample forecast uncertainty about the Federal Funds Rate …. By combining a Taylor rule with an unobserved components model of economic fundamentals I separate forecast uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005616883