Oil price behavior has changed dramatically in the last twenty years. These changes can be explained rather simply in terms of the delayed responses of supply and demand to prices, and in terms of changes in the rate of discovery of reserves. This analysis can be used to forecast possible future...

The oil shock of 1973-1974 was an economic and politic important event that produced controversies in the years that followed. No event in the last decades of the 20th century was as visible as the fourfold increase of the oil price in 1973-1974. Due to different opinions and the topic itself...

This paper examines the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and stock market in 11 OECD countries using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM). Considering both world oil production and world oil prices to supervise for oil supply and oil demand shocks, strong evidence of...

This study aims to introduce an ideal model for forecasting crude oil price volatility. For this purpose, the ‘predictability’ hypothesis was tested using the variance ratio test, BDS test and the chaos analysis. Structural analyses were also carried out to identify possible nonlinear...

The oil price hit a low of around USD 10 at the end of 1999. Since then it has moved upwards in a series of steps. In recent years it has been one of the most closely monitored components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is a leading inflation indicator. When it topped the USD 50 mark in...

Using a recursive vector autoregression (VAR), this paper considers the relation between the U.S. real interest rate and the real oil price. Theoretically, as outlined in Hotelling (1931) and Working (1949), a lower real interest rate results in reduced production and increased storage, implying...

There is an increasing tension between the Iranian Government and the west on an increasingly likely European oil embargo and the Iranian threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. The main question is: What will happen to the international oil prices in the case of shocks in the flow of Iranian oil...

This study employs the bounds testing approach to cointegration to investigate the relationships between the prices of two strategic commodities: gold and oil and the financial variables (interest rate, exchange rate and stock price) of Japan – a major oil-consuming and gold-holding country....

Crude oil prices have been fluctuating over time and by a large range. It is the disorganization of oil price series that makes it difficult to deduce the changing trends of oil prices in the middle- and long-terms and predict their price levels in the short-term. Following a price-state...

In this paper we investigate the relationship between the crude oil and the stock market in terms of returns and volatility-spillover for the BRIC countries by using cointegration and the VECM-MGARCH technique. The results reveal that the oil and the market returns are cointegrated in all the...