In the European Union, small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) represent 99% of all businesses and contribute to more than half of the total value-added. In this paper, we develop distress prediction models for SMEs using a dataset from eight European countries over the period 2000-2009. We...

In-spite of large volume of Contingent Credit Lines (CCL) in all commercial banks paucity of Exposure at Default (EAD) models, unsuitability of external data and inconsistent internal data with partial draw-down, has been a major challenge for risk managers as well as regulators for managing CCL...

This paper proposes a straightforward Markov-switching asset allocation model, which reduces the market exposure to periods of high volatility. The main purpose of the study is to examine the performance of a regime-based asset allocation strategy under realistic assumptions, compared to a buy...

This study extends the literature on the determinants of NPL. I investigate whether banks anticipate non-performing loans by making balance sheet adjustments. This study draws insights into the actions taken by credit risk management teams and bank managers to minimize the size of non-performing...

The paper studies the impact of bank specific, industry specific and macroeconomic factors affecting profitability of Indian Banks in a dynamic model framework. The persistence of bank profits and endogeneity of the factors have been accounted for using Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) as...

In this paper I examine whether the probability of default (PD) of an obligor estimated by a logit model can really be considered a good estimate of the true PD. The general answer seems to be no, although in this paper I don’t carry out a large scale (simulation) analysis. With a simple...

This report presents an application of a macro stress testing procedure on credit risk in the Romanian banking system. Macro stress testing, i.e. assessing the vulnerability of financial systems to exceptional but plausible macroeconomic scenarios, maintains a central role in macro-prudential...

The paper deals with the role of the isomorphism and homomorphism in the theory and practice of simulation. These concepts are considered as a methodological framework for models adequacy evaluation and for their suitability extent estimation to the study and improvement of economic systems,...

This paper studies trading volume of 206 recorded and publicly traded bonds in Indonesian Capital Market on January 4th – March 9th 2009 observed period. The data covers almost all trading data in the market and all brokers that exist. The microstructure data used in this study is a complete...

The standard measures of distress risk ignore the fact that firm defaults are correlated and that some defaults are more likely to occur in bad times. We use risk premium computed from corporate credit spreads to measure a firm’s exposure to systematic variation in default risk. Unlike...