The paper explores probability theory foundations behind evaluation of probabilistic forecasts. The emphasis is on a situation when the forecast examiner possesses only partially the information which was available and was used to produce a forecast. We argue that in such a situation forecasts...

The paper provides an overview of probabilistic forecasting and discusses a theoretical framework for evaluation of probabilistic forecasts which is based on proper scoring rules and moments. An artificial example of predicting second-order autoregression and an example of predicting the RTSI...

This paper considers the maximum generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) estimation and inference on parameters identified by high dimensional moment restrictions with weakly dependent data when the dimensions of the moment restrictions and the parameters diverge along with the sample size. The...

In this paper we evaluate the resilience of the banking system of WAEMU to macroeconomic shocks. From banks data, aggregated by country from 1990 to 2010, we identify the microeconomic and macroeconomic determinants of banks profitability of the Union using the generalized method of moments...

Conditional heteroskedasticity, skewness and leverage effects are well known features of financial returns. The literature on factor models has often made assumptions that preclude the three effects to occur simultaneously. In this paper I propose a conditionally heteroskedastic factor model...

In this paper we analyze the determinants of real wages in Macedonia’s manufacturing sector. We emphasize the macroeconomic aspects involved, and use econometric panel data techniques to model the behaviour of real wages for the period 2005:1-2010:12, using monthly data. In the study we found...

The problem of instrument proliferation and its consequences (overfitting of endogenous variables, bias of estimates, weakening of Sargan/Hansen test) are well known. The literature provides little guidance on how many instruments is too many. It is common practice to report the instrument count...

This paper examines the relationship between foreign aid and growth in real GDP per capita as it emerges from simple augmentations of popular cross-country growth specifications. It is shown that aid in all likelihood increases the growth rate, and this result is not conditional on ‘good’...

The goal of this paper is to empirically test for structural breaks of world mean temperatures that may have ignited at some date the phenomenon known as “Climate Change” or “Global Warming”. Estimation by means of the dynamic Generalized Method of Moments is conducted on a large dataset...

We consider Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation of a regression model with spatially correlated errors. We propose some new moment conditions, and derive the asymptotic distribution of the GMM based on them. The analysis is supported by a small Monte Carlo exercise.