Using forecasts from Consensus Economics Inc., we provide evidence on the efficiency of real GDP growth forecasts by testing whether forecast revisions are uncorrelated. As the forecast data used are multi-dimensional—18 countries, 24 monthly forecasts for the current and the following year...

Dwivedi and Srivastava (1984, DS) studied the exact finite sample properties of Nagar’s (1962) double k-class estimator as continuous functions of its two characterizing scalars k1 and k2, and provided guidelines for their choice in empirical work. In this note we show that the empirical...

We develop a theoretical framework to compare forecast uncertainty estimated from time series models to those available from survey density forecasts. The sum of the average variance of individual densities and the disagreement, which is the same as the variance of the aggregate density, is...

Using self-assessed health status together with several indicators of individual morbidity and socio-demographic characteristics, we study the quality of health and income related health disparity in five racial/ethnic groups as well as across 17 geographic areas of New York State. The American...

We estimate a Bayesian learning model with heterogeneity aimed at explaining the evolution of expert disagreement in forecasting real GDP growth and inflation over 24 monthly horizons for G7 countries during 1990-2007. Professional forecasters are found to begin and have relatively more success...

This paper studies the business cycle features of the transportation sector using dynamic factor models. The transportation reference cycles peak ahead of the economic cycles, but lag by a few months at troughs. The asymmetric relationship between these two suggests the usefulness of...