This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed … from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation … Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other indicators of inflation expectations – 36 survey measures and the TIPS …

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … Michigan Surveys of Consumers. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data …

backward-looking specification) and up to 80% (respect to the random walk) when forecasting at 12-months ahead. …

models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency measures which appear anachronistic in the modern era of high … frequency and real-time data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many … previously unexploited monthly and real-time measures of inflation expectations. These higher frequency measures tend to …

finance; for such tasks as pattern reorganization, and time series forecasting, have dramatically increased. Many central … banks use forecasting models based on ANN methodology for predicting various macroeconomic indicators, like inflation, GDP … ANN model with conventional univariate time series forecasting models such as AR(1) and ARIMA based models and observed …

finance; for such tasks as pattern reorganization, and time series forecasting, have dramatically increased. Many central … banks use forecasting models based on ANN methodology for predicting various macroeconomic indicators, like inflation, GDP … ANN model with conventional univariate time series forecasting models such as AR(1) and ARIMA based models and observed …

We evaluate the forecasting performance of six different models for short-term forecasting of Macedonian GDP: 1) ARIMA …

forecasting accuracy within factor modelling framework. Nested data means disaggregated data or sub-components of aggregated … mean square error is employed as the standard tool to measure forecasting accuracy. According to this empirical study we … enhance Latvian GDP forecasting accuracy. The efficiency gain improving forecasts is about 0.15-0.20 percentage points of year …