In small samples and especially in the case of small true default probabilities, standard approaches to credit default probability estimation have certain drawbacks. Most importantly, standard estimators tend to underestimate the true default probability which is of course an undesirable...

We propose Bayesian inference in hazard regression models where the baseline hazard is unknown, covariate effects are possibly age-varying (non-proportional), and there is multiplicative frailty with arbitrary distribution. Our framework incorporates a wide variety of order restrictions on...

The aim of this paper is to model the length of registration at university and its associated academic outcome for undergraduate students at the Pontificia Universidad Cat´olica de Chile. Survival time is defined as the time until the end of the enrollment period, which can relate to different...

The hedge fund represents a unique investment opportunity for the institutional and private investors in the diffusion-type financial systems. The main objective of this condensed article is to research the hedge fund’s optimal investment portfolio strategies selection in the global capital...

This study implements Mathematica to estimate a system of national accounts. The estimation methods applied are portrayed in Danilov and Magnus (2008), including the Bayesian estimation, restricted and unrestricted least-squares estimation and best linear unbiased estimation. Operationalizing...

In this article we try to introduce Bayesian methodology for the estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Ukrainian economy. The resulting impulse response functions can be used for increasing the efficiency of monetary and fiscal policy interventions. In addition, we...

This paper develops a macroeconomic model of the interaction between consumer debt and firm debt over the business cycle. I incorporate interest rate spreads generated by firm and household loan default risk into a real business cycle model. I estimate the model on US aggregate data. This allows...

In this note on the paper from (Jiang, Manchanda & Rossi 2009) I want to discuss a simple alternative estimation method of the multinomial logit model for aggregated data, the so called BLP model, named after (Berry, Levinsohn & Pakes 1995). The estimation is conducted through a bayesian...

Macroeconomic practitioners frequently work with multivariate time series models such as VARs, factor augmented VARs as well as time-varying parameter versions of these models (including variants with multivariate stochastic volatility). These models have a large number of parameters and, thus,...

In this article, we propose the Bayesian estimation of the parsimonious but effective GARCH(1,1) model with Normal innovations. We sample the parameters joint posterior distribution using the approach suggested by Nakatsuma (1998). As a first step, we fit the model to foreign exchange...