In this chapter we provide a brief review of the “signals” approach used in this book to assess the probability of a currency or a banking crisis. This methodology was first used to analyze the performance of a variety of macroeconomic and financial indicators around the “twin crises” in...

We show that the profitability of currency carry trades can be understood as the compensation for exchange rate misalignment risk based on the rare disastrous model of exchange rates (Farhi and Gabaix, 2008). It explains over 97% of the cross-sectional excess returns and dominates other...

This paper proposed a new optimal design of Early Warning Systems (EWS) to detect early warning signals of an impending financial crisis. The problem of EWS was formulated from a policy maker's perspective. Hence the probability threshold was obtained by minimizing the policy maker's welfare...

We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow...

Using a dataset on bilateral trade flow at the industry-level from 1980 to 2006, I determine the influence of the industry financial composition on the export flow between a developing country, Pakistan, and its trading partners. Firms undertaking exporting activities may need to fund their...

Regularly there are periods of a dramatic decline in stock markets that are defined as “stock market crashes” and cause “stock market crisis”. Analysis of the influence of this crisis over the Spanish stock market, the originating causes and their repercussions over the market can enable...

This is the first study that employs option pricing model to measure the position-unwinding risk of currency carry trade portfolios, which covers moment information as the proxy for crash risk. We show that high interest-rate currencies are exposed to higher position-unwinding risk than low...

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the exchange rate misalignments for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand before the currency crisis. By employing the sticky-price monetary exchange rate model in the environment of vector error-correction, the results indicate that...

An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such...

The euro zone crisis illustrates the insufficiency of adjustment mechanisms in a monetary union characterized by a large heterogeneity. Exchange rate adjustments being impossible, they are very few alternative mechanisms. This situation reflects a simple diagnosis. At the level of the whole euro...