This paper presents numerical measures of European consumers’ inflation expectations derived on the basis of European Commission qualitative survey data with different quantification methods, i.e. with the probability method, the regression method and the logistic (and linear) function method....

This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other...

For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

Economic theory provides clear suggestions in fixed versus flexible exchange rates dilemma in fighting high inflation pressures. However, relative diversity in exchange rate regimes in the European transition economies revealed uncertain and spurious conclusions about the exchange rate regime...

How does variation in the clarity of elites’ communication change the economy? Previous re- search shows that elites’ communication changes the economy, but not all messages are crafted equally. Models of strategic communication suggests that clearer and precise information can improve the...

This paper explores some recent challenges for the inflation targeting. The circumstances are different for the emerging market countries and for the industrialized ones. In many emerging market countries the central banks adopted more or less formally the inflation targeting, in order to gain...

This paper investigates the issue of rational expectations using inflation forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and the Green Book. We provide an alternative test of rational expectations hypothesis by measuring the degree of persistence of potential systematic mistakes....

Market interest rates are usually determined not only by the inflation related determinants but also by the forces that affect real interest rates fluctuations. In point of fact the nominal interest rates are driven by many specific determinants so that it should not be clear the nominal...

This paper provides a simple epidemiology model where households, when forming their inflation expectations, rationally adopt the past release of inflation with certain probability rather than the forward-looking newspaper forecast as suggested in Carroll [2003, Macroeconomic Expectations of...