The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has started to implement its new policy mix since late 2010. In this new approach expectations, credit growth and reel exchange rate are monitored closely as key indicators for financial stability on top of price stability. The effect of this new...

We estimate monetary policy reaction functions with threshold effects for the Deutsche Bundesbank using a real-time data set. Estimates based on the deviation of inflation from the Bundesbank's inflation target as threshold variable suggest a switch to a stronger output gap response in the...

Analysis of fundamental factors of the CBR’s exchange rate lay at the basis of this publication. The authors review papers which address problems of index construction of real effective exchange rate as well as models of evaluation of the real equilibrium exchange rate. They also analyze...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

The study examines the influence of a selective set of macroeconomic forces on stock market prices in Bangladesh. The Dhaka Stock Exchange All-Share Price Index (DSI) is used to represent the prices in the stock market while deposit interest rates, exchange rates, consumer price index (CPI),...

This paper criticises the econometric inflation uncertainty proxies found in the literature, which show an overly optimistic picture about our real ability to forecast, and highlights the sharp contrast between the evidence portrayed by that literature and the evidence conveyed by the literature...

This paper estimates the US Taylor rule for the period 1997 – 2010, with monthly data, a period characterized by two recessions and asset markets turbulences. Its novelties are that, firstly, we follow Weise and Barbera (2009) and include in the Taylor rule credit spreads (a variable which...

This paper proposes full-Bayes priors for time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) which are more robust and objective than existing choices proposed in the literature. We formulate the priors in a way that they allow for straightforward posterior computation, they require...

This paper compares forecast performance of linear and nonlinear monetary policy rules using South African data. Recursive forecasts values are computed for 1- to 12-steps ahead for the out-of-sample period 2006:01 to 2010:12. For the nonlinear models we use bootstrap method for multi-step ahead...

This study examines threshold effects of inflation on economic growth for the Zambian economy using quarterly data collected between 1998 and 2011. This objective is tackled through the use of a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model and the conditional least squares (CLS) estimation technique. As...