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Ölkə iqtisadiyyatı üzrə göstəricilərin modelləşdirilməsi və proqnozlaşdırılması: problemlər və praktiki çətinliklər

Mehdiyev, Mehdi; Ahmadov, Vugar; Huseynov, Salman; … - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2015

In this paper, we study main problems and practical issues of modeling and forecasting of macroeconomic variables in the national economy. For that, we employ astructural VAR models and estimate interdependencies among different economic variables. Initial data analysis of macroeconomic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011271682

Beating a Random Walk: “Hard Times” for Forecasting Inflation in Post-Oil Boom Years?

Huseynov, Salman; Ahmadov, Vugar; Adigozalov, Shaig - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014

In this study, we investigate forecasting performance of various univariate and multivariate models in predicting inflation for different horizons. We design our forecast experiment for the post-oil boom years of 2010-2014 and compare forecasting ability of the different models with that of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011251893

Labour Market Dynamics in Australia

Wesselbaum, Dennis - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2013

This paper estimates a stylized search and matching model on data for Australia covering the period 1978-2008. Using Bayesian methods we find that the model does a fairly good job in replicating the data. Surprisingly, we find a large value for the worker’s bargaining power and low vacancy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011259078

Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty

Byrne, Joseph; Cao, Shuo; Korobilis, Dimitris - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2015

This paper extends the Nelson-Siegel linear factor model by developing a flexible macro-finance framework for modeling and forecasting the term structure of US interest rates. Our approach is robust to parameter uncertainty and structural change, as we consider instabilities in parameters and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011266126

Monitoring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks

Marcelle, Chauvet; Simon, Potter - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2007

This paper examines the predictive content of coincident variables for monitoring U.S. recessions in the presence of instabilities. We propose several specifications of a probit model for classifying phases of the business cycle. We find strong evidence in favor of the ones that allow for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005014744

Estimates of the long-run growth rate of Singapore with a CES production function

Rao, B. Bhaskara; Shankar, Sriram - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2011

This paper estimates with the Bayesian methods a CES production function for Singapore for 1960-2009. It is found that the elasticity of substitution is 0.6, technical progress is labour augmenting and the steady state growth rate of Singapore is about 1.8%.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009147585

Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World

Byrne, Joseph P; Korobilis, Dimitris; Ribeiro, Pinho J - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014

An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011111223

Social capital and views on suicide via the internet: a study using survey data

Yamamura, Eiji - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2015

individuals’ views about suicide as conveyed via the Internet. Furthermore, this paper compared the effects of social capital … Internet for a companion with whom to commit suicide. However, such a relation is not observed between social capital in the … externality of suicidal thoughts conveyed via the Internet. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011271687

Бизнес моделиране в електронната търговия

Bonev, Pavlin - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2013

This paper aims at presenting an in-depth review of the new economic relationships associated with the advent of e-commerce in the daily lives of consumers in Bulgaria, which greatly contributes to change and adapt to the modern business environment as well as to the new processes. In the paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011258864

Not Rocket Science: A Roadmap for Arts and Cultural R&D

Bakhshi, Hasan; Freeman, Alan; Desai, Radhika - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

This paper proposes that publicly funded arts and cultural organisations should aspire to, and be funded to, engage in Research and Experimental Development (R&D), particularly that which aims at innovation, that is, new social application. Not confined to novel products or processes, arts and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011259002

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