In this paper we study factor models for security returns on financial markets, where some pervasive factors are common across all securities and other pervasive factors prevail only within some groups of securities but not in others. This kind of structured factors allow a more nuanced analysis...

Bayesian model averaging is applied to robustly ascertain the determinants of various output volatility measures, including the downside semideviation of growth rates. Financial sophis- tication variables are found to have qualitatively different effects on volatility. The ratio of govern- ment...

Model selection in nonparametric and semiparametric regression is of both theoretical and practical interest. Gao and Tong (2004) proposed a semiparametric leave–more–out cross–validation selection procedure for the choice of both the parametric and nonparametric regressors in a nonlinear...

The choice of the appropriate linear model before this can be used for planning and decision making, has been the concern of many statistical workers. Most of the methods in the literature aim at evaluating the descriptive ability of the candidate models. In the present paper an evaluation...

In this paper, an evaluation method is suggested for selecting one of two competing models based on certain predictive ability ratings. The main focus is on the case of linear models that are not necessarily nested. In the context of such models, the test procedure is based on a sample statistic...

The paper deals with a distribution that arises as the distribution of a sample statistic used to compare the predictive ability of two competing linear models. It is defined as the distribution of the ratio of two correlated gamma variables and its probabilities are tabulated in order that they...

The finite-sample as well as the asymptotic distribution of Leung and Barron's (2006) model averaging estimator are derived in the context of a linear regression model. An impossibility result regarding the estimation of the finite-sample distribution of the model averaging estimator is obtained.

The finite-sample coverage properties of confidence intervals based on penalized maximum likelihood estimators like the LASSO, adaptive LASSO, and hard-thresholding are analyzed. It is shown that symmetric intervals are the shortest. The length of the shortest intervals based on the...

The paper considers the problem of selecting one of two not necessarily nested competing regression models based on comparative evaluations of their abilities in each of two different issues: The first pertains to viewing the problem as a “best-fitting” model determination problem in the...

It is known that semiparametric time series regression is often used without checking its suitability and compactness. In theory, this may result in dealing with an unnecessarily complicated model. In practice, one may encounter the computational difficulty caused by the spareness of the data....