Showing 1 - 10 of 63
-Periodic Power Law (LPPL) model for financial bubble modelling, and discusses early criticism and recent generalizations proposed to … graphical tools to diagnose financial bubbles in the making in real time. An application of this methodology to the Gold bubble …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011113835
The forecast plays an important role in the planning, the decision-making and control in any domain of activity … (univariate models), that use only the information of its past values to forecast the future, can often predict future with more … accuracy than causal or multivariate models. In this paper, we model and forecast the offensive effectiveness of the soccer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789648
In this note, we attempt to place the question of how we got to the global financial crisis that began as the US Subprime debacle in the summer of 2007 in the context of an international and historical comparative setting. It is of some poignancy that the “we” here refers to the wealthiest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011259756
This paper explores the existence of rational bubbles in the pricing of an asset that pays no dividend. I find that … when "the spirit of capitalism" is introduced into a growth model, rational bubbles do exist provided that the marginal …, could exist. This could provide a simple theoretical foundation to explore economic implications of the collapse of bubbles. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009328131
In this paper we provide a unifying framework for a set of seemingly disparate models for exogenous and endogenous shocks in complex financial systems. Markets operate by balancing intrinsic levels of risk and return. This remains true even in the midst of transitory external shocks. Changes in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647385
We detected rational bubbles in 22 emerging stockmarkets using both standard and threshold cointegration. Eighteen … stockmarkets experienced explosive bubbles (and some of them periodically collapsing bubbles as well). The remaining four markets … experienced periodically collapsing bubbles only. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005836174
contributed to bubbles in the new and emerging markets. Based on the monetary overinvestment theories of Hayek and Wicksell we … describe a wave of bubbles and crises that was initiated in Japan by an expansionary monetary policy in the mid 1980s. After … the burst of the Japanese bubble and sharply declining interest rates in Japan, carry trade transmitted the bubbles to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005837325
During the British Railway Mania of the 1840s the promotion and construction of new railways increased dramatically. These new projects were generally financed by shares with uncalled capital, which allowed investors to make payments on an instalment basis over a period of several years. There...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008543046
Although the British Railway Mania has been described as one of the greatest bubbles in history, it has been largely …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008543794
The business cycles theories of Wicksell (1898), Schumpeter (1912), Mises (1912), Hayek (1929, 1935) and Minsky (1986, 1992) explain business cycles by distorted prices on capital markets, buoyant credit expansion and overinvestment. The exuberance during the boom endogenously causes the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008549598