The evolution of inflation and output over the last 50 years is examined through the lens of a micro-founded model that allows for changes in the behavior of the Federal Reserve and in the volatility of structural shocks. Agents are aware of the possibility of regime changes and their beliefs...

This paper shows that rare events are important in explaining the cross section of asset returns because of their role in shaping agents' expectations. I reconsider the "bad beta, good beta" ICAPM proposed by Campbell and Vuolteenaho and I point out that the explanatory power of the model relies...