Bessler, David; Kibriya, Shahriar; Chen, Junyi; Price, Ed - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014
The paper considers univariate and multivariate models to forecast monthly conflict events in the Sudan over the out-of-sample period 2009 – 2012. The models used to generate these forecasts were based on a specification from a machine learning algorithm fit to 2000 – 2008 monthly data. The...