There is hope for the generalized method of moments (GMM). Lanne and Saikkonen (2011) show that the GMM estimator is inconsistent, when the instruments are lags of noncausal variables. This paper argues that this inconsistency depends on distributional assumptions, that do not always hold. In...

Stock prices often diverge from measures of fundamental value, which simple present value models fail to explain. This paper tries to find causes for these long-run price movements and their persistence by estimating a STAR model for the price-earnings ratio of the S&P500 index for 1961Q1 -...

Misspecification of agents' information sets or expectation formation mechanisms maylead to noncausal autoregressive representations of asset prices. Annual US stock prices are found to be noncausal, implying that agents' expectations are not revealed to an outside observer such as an...

The way in which market participants form expectations affects the dynamic properties of financial asset prices and therefore the appropriateness of different econometric tools used for empirical asset pricing. In addition to standard rational expectations models, this thesis studies a class of...

We estimate a panel vector autoregressive model to analyze the highly disputed relationship between debt and growth. Using data on 20 developed countries, we find no evidence for a robust effect on debt to growth, even for higher levels of sovereign debt. We do find a significant negative...

The VAR approach for testing present value models is applied to a nonlinear asset pricing model with three types of agents, using historical US stock prices and dividends. Besides rational long-term investors, that value assets according to expected dividends, the model includes rational and...

Gældskrisens udbrud blev startsignalet til omfattende makroøkonomiske reformer i u-Iandene i 1980erne. De chok, som forårsagede krisen, udgjorde sammen med kraftigt voksende uligevægte i eksterne og interne samfundsøkonomiske balancer en virkningsfuld advarsel. Det blev klart, at de...

Udenlandsk låntagning er en integreret del af udvikJingsprocessen, og der var indtil i al fald begyndelsen af 1980erne udbredt enighed om det nyuige I at overføre udenlandske opsparingsoverskud til u-Iandene. Sådanne overførsler giver for det første mulighed for at øge investeringerne og...

This article analyzes the relationship between growth and income distribution in developing countries. Three important hypotheses are scrutinized: The U-hypothesis, the absolute income hypothesis and the hypothesis of conflict between growth and a more equal income distribution. After a review...

Foreign aid has evolved considerably over the last five decades in response to a dramatically changing global political and economic context. This paper takes a retrospective look at this process and discusses whether aid has been effective in furthering economic growth and development. The...