In this paper, we present a procedure for consistent estimation of the severity and frequency distributions based on incomplete insurance data and demonstrate that ignoring the thresholds leads to a serious underestimation of the ruin probabilities. The event frequency is modelled with a...

This paper explores the difficulties involved in quantitative measurement of operational risk and proposes simulation methods as a practical solution to obtain the distribution of total losses. It also introduces an example of the estimation of expected and unexpected losses, as well as...

Factor models for portfolio credit risk assume that defaults are independent conditional on a small number of systematic factors. This paper shows that the conditional independence assumption may be violated in one-factor models with constant default thresholds, as conditional defaults become...

After a brief review of the literature on rating arbitrage for corporate and structured nance, we introduce the standard criteria adopted by rating agencies to assess riskiness of Constant Proportion Debt Obligations (CPDO). Then, we propose a new rating model in order to incorporate a more...

This paper is intended as a guide to statistical inference for loss distributions. There are three basic approaches to deriving the loss distribution in an insurance risk model: empirical, analytical, and moment based. The empirical method is based on a sufficiently smooth and accurate estimate...

This paper is intended as a guide to building insurance risk (loss) models. A typical model for insurance risk, the so-called collective risk model, treats the aggregate loss as having a compound distribution with two main components: one characterizing the arrival of claims and another...

The derivation of loss distribution from insurance data is a very interesting research topic but at the same time not an easy task. To find an analytic solution to the loss distribution may be mislading although this approach is frequently adopted in the actuarial literature. Moreover, it is...

Despite the governments took rescue and/or stimulus packages, signs of recovery occurring in 2009 and 2010, the global growth sustainability seems uncertain. Romania was hit hard by the crisis, suffering a severe contraction of the economy, estimated at 7.1 percent in 2009. The worsening of the...

The paper focuses on the current system of country risk assessment by the main rating agencies, pointing out some of its weaknesses. Under these circumstances, was found that Romania is overrated by the international agencies, mainly due to political reasons, related to the close accession of...

The central question this paper seeks to answer is how monetary policy might affect the equilibrium behavior of default and sovereign risk premium. The paper is based on �one-interest-rate� model. Public debt becomes risky due to an active fiscal policy, as in Uribe (2006), reflecting the...