This paper represents a neoclassical model that explains the observed empirical relationship between government spending and world commodity supplies and the real exchange rate and real commodity prices. It is shown that fiscal expansion and increasing world commodity supplies simultaneously...

The paper focuses on the current system of country risk assessment by the main rating agencies, pointing out some of its weaknesses. Under these circumstances, was found that Romania is overrated by the international agencies, mainly due to political reasons, related to the close accession of...

The paper proposes a practical guide to the evaluation of the financial and non-financial vulnerability of the private sector (excluding financial entities). It describes step by step the sequence of issues that should be examined to assess the level of vulnerability of the private sector,...

This paper assesses an economy's default risk on its international debt by considering different approaches,prevalent in the literature. Unlike in multi-country studies,these data comprise reported loans to one economy only-This is useful since the country's macroeconomic development is the...

The study is emphasizing the weak performances of the Romanian economy, unable to turn positive the current account deficits. On the contrary, because of rising problems in deficits financing through autonomous flows, the debt accumulation could lead Romania on the brink of entering a financial...

The paper updates a warning launched by the author a year earlier regarding the effects of Inward/Outward Processing Trade flows, already entered a marginal decrease path. The high volatility of these flows, totally escaping the perception of decision makers, is threatening Romania’s...

Country risk and sovereign risk are two of the most important topics in risk management. The first part of this work introduces these concepts and shows the differences between them. The following chapters fit linear and ordinal regression models to a data-set with more than 100 countries, where...

In our paper we analyze the heterogeneity between various business models among systemically important banks in 65 countries over the period of 2000-2012. For the first time, we are able to identify true banking strategies consisting of different combinations of bank asset and funding sources...

Assessing and monitoring systemic risk is a challenge for policy makers and supervisors in all countries. It is particularly challenging in low-income countries (LICs), owing to a number of characteristics shared to a greater or lesser extent by most of them. This paper discusses these common...