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Using sentiment surveys to predict GDP growth and stock returns

Guzman, Giselle C. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647399

Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? The Euro Area Case

Dion, David Pascal - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2006

The following analysis, based on error correction models, suggests that consumer confidence, together with traditional macroeconomic variables, contains a forecasting and explicative power on consumption. By including consumer confidence in a consumption function, consumer confidence releases a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005616993

The quest for the best consumer confidence indicator

Jonsson, Andreas; Lindén, Staffan - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2009

Out of 11 questions included in the EU harmonised consumer questionnaire, it is possible to construct 2 047 different consumer confidence indicators. We search through all these indicators in order to find the single indicator that has the highest correlation with private consumption growth....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008674248

Consumer confidence and consumption forecast: a non-parametric approach

Bruno, Giancarlo - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2012

The consumer confidence index is a highly observed indicator among short-term analysts and news reporters and it is generally considered to convey some useful information about the short-term evolution of consumer expenditure. Notwithstanding this, its usefulness in forecasting aggregate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011111097

Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending?

Dion, David Pascal - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2006

The traditional consumption function based on the life cycle permanent income hypothesis (LC-PIH) considers that consumer spending is based on households’ expectations of their future income. However, in short-term forecasting, the traditional economic determinants of consumption do not...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005787072

Constraints on credit, consumer behaviour and the dynamics of wealth

Gomes, Orlando - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2007

This note develops a simple macro model where the pattern of wealth accumulation is determined by a credit multiplier and by the way households react to short run fluctuations. In this setup, long term wealth dynamics are eventually characterized by the presence of endogenous cycles.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005790095

Nowcasting Regional GDP: The Case of the Free State of Saxony

Henzel, Steffen; Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2015

We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level using a large set of indicators (regional, national and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011267848

A note on GDP now-/forecasting with dynamic versus static factor models along a business cycle

Buss, Ginters - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

nowcasting performance during a pronounced switch of business cycle phases due to the latest recession. We compare the factor … models' nowcasting performance to a random walk, autoregressive and the best-performing nowcasting models at our hands, which … improve upon the nowcasting performance of the VAR models when the model span and the nowcasting period stretch beyond a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008470462

Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data

Guérin, Pierre; Leiva-Leon, Danilo - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014

This paper estimates and forecasts U.S. business cycle turning points with state-level data. The probabilities of recession are obtained from univariate and multivariate regime-switching models based on a pairwise combination of national and state-level data. We use two classes of combination...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011111725

Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break

Barnett, William A.; Chauvet, Marcelle; Leiva-Leon, Danilo - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014

This paper provides early assessments of current U.S. Nominal GDP growth, which has been considered as a potential new monetary policy target. The nowcasts are computed using the exact amount of information that policy makers have available at the time predictions are made. However, real time...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011112417

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