This chapter proposes an up-to-date review of estimation strategies available for the Bayesian inference of GARCH-type models. The emphasis is put on a novel efficient procedure named AdMitIS. The methodology automatically constructs a mixture of Student-t distributions as an approximation to...

This paper presents the R package bayesGARCH which provides functions for the Bayesian estimation of the parsimonious but effective GARCH(1,1) model with Student-t innovations. The estimation procedure is fully automatic and thus avoids the time-consuming and difficult task of tuning a sampling...

Our trading strategy is inspired from the paper "implied volatility indices as leading indicators of stock index returns?", Giot (2002,[3]). It uses stylized facts observed in stock markets: the so called "leverage effect", the clustering and the mean-reverting behaviour of the implied...

This empirical study proposes a dependency analysis of monthly financial time series. We use the overlapping technique and non-parametric correlation in order to increase both accuracy and consistency. Copulas are used to test extreme co-movements between financial securities. Our results...

This article describes the R package DEoptim which implements the differential evolution algorithm for the global optimization of a real-valued function of a real-valued parameter vector. The implementation of differential evolution in DEoptim interfaces with C code for efficiency. The utility...

The R package DEoptim implements the differential evolution algorithm. This algorithm is an evolutionary technique similar to genetic algorithms that is useful for the solution of global optimization problems. In this note we provide an introduction to the package and demonstrate its utility for...

This MSc thesis proposes the analysis of high frequency ODAX options during October 2001. It consists of three chapters investigating respectively market activity, arbitrage opportunities and performance of various implied volatility surfaces.

An important aspect of portfolio risk management is the analysis of the overall risk with respect to the allocations to the underlying assets. Marginal risk is the traditional tool used by portfolio managers to accomplish this. However, this metric is only meaningful when a position is levered...

The estimation of a jump-diffusion model via Differential Evolution is presented. Finding the maximum likelihood estimator for such processes is a tedious task due to the multimodality of the likelihood function. The performance of the Differential Evolution algorithm is compared to standard...

Using well-known GARCH models for density prediction of daily S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 index returns, a comparison is provided between frequentist and Bayesian estimation. No significant difference is found between the qualities of the forecasts of the whole density, whereas the Bayesian approach...