We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities...

I generate priors for a VAR from four competing models of economic fluctuations: a standard RBC model, Fisher’s (2006) investment-specific technology shocks model, an RBC model with capital adjustment costs and habit formation, and a sticky price model with an unaccommodating monetary...

In this article, we propose the Bayesian estimation of the parsimonious but effective GARCH(1,1) model with Normal innovations. We sample the parameters joint posterior distribution using the approach suggested by Nakatsuma (1998). As a first step, we fit the model to foreign exchange...

This paper builds on a simple unified representation of shrinkage Bayes estimators based on hierarchical Normal-Gamma priors. Various popular penalized least squares estimators for shrinkage and selection in regression models can be recovered using this single hierarchical Bayes formulation....

In this paper, we forecast EU-area inflation with many predictors using time-varying parameter models. The facts that time-varying parameter models are parameter-rich and the time span of our data is relatively short motivate a desire for shrinkage. In constant coefficient regression models, the...

One advantage of Bayesian estimation is its solid theoretical ground on model comparison, which relies heavily upon the accurate calculation of marginal likelihood. The Gelfand-Dey (1994) and Chib (1995) methods are two popular means of calculating marginal likelihood. A trade-off exists between...

In this paper, we develop and apply certain tools to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. In particular, this paper makes three contributions: One, it argues the need for such tools to evaluate the usefulness of the these models; two, it...

This paper evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models from the standpoint of their usefulness in doing monetary policy analysis. The paper isolates features most relevant for monetary policymaking and uses the diagnostic tools of posterior...

In this paper I assess the ability of Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models of different size to forecast comovements of major macroeconomic series in the euro area. Both approaches are compared to unrestricted VARs in terms of...

We propose a new methodology for ranking in probability the commonly proposed drivers of inflation in the New Keynesian model. The approach is based on Bayesian model selection among restricted VAR models, each of which embodies only one or none of the candidate variables as the driver....