The formation of the European Union (EU) is the one of the biggest political – economic events of the last 50 years. The aim of this study is to develop EU economy functioning system dynamic model. Main research method is system dynamics. General scheme of EU economy system dynamic model is...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

As asserted in standard literature, there is an implicit circular relationship between the productivity growth and the potential level of production (and, consequently, the estimation of the natural rate of unemployment is also altered). In order to avoid such emerging impediment in any...

The study concentrated on demonstrating how non-linear modelling can be useful to investigate the behavioural of dynamic economic systems. Using some adequate non-linear models could be a good way to find more refined solutions to actually unsolved problems or ambiguities in economics. Beginning...

An extensive literature has analyzed the implications of hidden shifts in the dividend growth rate. However, corresponding research on learning about growth persistence is completely lacking. Hidden persistence is a novel way to introduce long-run risk into standard business-cycle models of...

Article on the causes, dynamics of development and institutional forms of economic cycles. We study the institutional patterns associated with the formation, development and completion of economic cycles from the standpoint of an exogenous approach. The author proves the thesis about the...

This paper provides early assessments of current U.S. Nominal GDP growth, which has been considered as a potential new monetary policy target. The nowcasts are computed using the exact amount of information that policy makers have available at the time predictions are made. However, real time...

I start with income and wealth inequality data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Thomas Piketty, and propose approaches taken from science (for example, behavioral evolution theory,) that might be useful in explaining the data and forecasting future economic events. Using a modified...

Extreme Value Theory is increasingly used in the modelling of financial time series. The non-normality of stock returns leads to the search for alternative distributions that allows skewness and leptokurtic behavior. One of the most used distributions is the Pareto Distribution because it allows...