In this paper, we study main problems and practical issues of modeling and forecasting of macroeconomic variables in the national economy. For that, we employ astructural VAR models and estimate interdependencies among different economic variables. Initial data analysis of macroeconomic...

In this study, we investigate forecasting performance of various univariate and multivariate models in predicting inflation for different horizons. We design our forecast experiment for the post-oil boom years of 2010-2014 and compare forecasting ability of the different models with that of...

The Moroccan economy relies heavily on remittances from abroad to the extent they are far more significant sources of income than others such as foreign direct investments and tourism. To assess the reliability of this external financing source by testing the resilience vis-à-vis the hosting...

The liquidity problems that appeared on the interbank money markets during the financial crisis caused an increased volatility of the interbank interest rates, especially after September 2008. Banking institutions from the Euro zone have avoided the mutual funding, which resulted in a reduction...

Examining energy as a strategic commodity in the world and analysis of the effect of changes in its price on key economic factors has been always considered as significant. The importance of this issue is twofold in Iran: first, policies in this country, as one of the great possessors of energy...

Several studies have highlighted the fact that heavy-tailedness of asset returns can be the consequence of conditional heteroskedasticity. GARCH models have thus become very popular, given their ability to account for volatility clustering and, implicitly, heavy tails. However, these models...

The hedge fund represents a unique investment opportunity for the institutional and private investors in the diffusion-type financial systems. The main objective of this condensed article is to research the hedge fund’s optimal investment portfolio strategies selection in the global capital...

Petroleum and petrochemicals prices movements have always been at the core of economic research agenda not only because of its crucial effect on the cash flows of oil-related businesses, but also due to the far-reaching implications of oil price uncertainty on the macro-economy and the financial...

A new method is proposed for estimating linear triangular models, where identification results from the structural errors following a bivariate and diagonal GARCH(1,1) process. The associated estimator is a GMM estimator shown to have the usual √T-asymptotics. A Monte Carlo study of the...

The main aim of this paper is to examine the qualities of the mixed diffusion-jump process whose parameters are random variables. The hypothesis of a Wiener geometric process applied to exchange rate has become doubtful at the beginning of the nineties, fact determined by a high leptokurtosis of...