This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other...

The present paper introduces two bonds in a standard New-Keynesian model to study the role of segmentation in bond markets for the determinacy of rational expectations equilibria. We use a strongly-separable utility function to model 'liquid' bonds that provide transaction services for the...

The present study is, in particular, an attempt to test the relationship between tax level and political stability by using some economic control variables and to see the relationship among government effectiveness, corruption, and GDP. For the purpose, we used the Vector Autoregression (VAR)...

The price of oil has had a marked increase since 2002. The prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude -the two main benhcmarks of the market- have surpassed their historical maximum reached in 1991 during the first Gulf War, though, in real terms, the price of oil is still below...

Predictions about the macroeconomic impacts of recent U.S. natural gas trends vary widely. I re-evaluate the possible effects on U.S. economic activity using a standard general equilibrium model. Within this framework I show that increases in natural gas supply result in small-to-moderate...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

In this paper, we propose a usual strategy in order to estimate the impact of a free trade area agreement between EU and Mediterranean Partner Countries (MPC's). In this frame, a dynamized Input-Output model is developed, obtaining the main economic impacts in each MPC country (employment, Value...

The Department of Finance employs extensively a large macroeconomic model of the Canadian economy -- the QFS model(Quarterly Forecasting and Simulation Model) -- for economic and fiscal forecasting and simulation exercises. As with any large macroeconomic model, and particularly one that plays a...

Among the many demand specifications in the literature, the Rotterdam model and the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) have particularly long histories, have been highly developed, and are often applied in consumer demand systems modeling. Using Monte Carlo techniques, we seek to determine which...