What matters to economic decision-making is whether the economy has become more or less predictable. People and businesses use information around them to form judgements about what might happen in the future. The rise in uncertainty might be associated with increased concern about extreme...

Self-esteem measures confidence in one’s abilities. Prior literature has shown that higher self-esteem can also affect individual financial decision making through an increased willingness to invest in risky assets and motivation to enhance self image through wealth accumulation. However,...

There is a consolidated empirical literature providing evidence of the fact that financial literacy, human capital, savings and stock market participation are interconnected decisions. However, to the best of our knowledge, a theoretical explanation of such connections is missing. In this paper...

Abstract. In the 1980s and at beginning of the 1990s the debate on expectation formation mechanism was dominated by the rational expectation hypothesis. Later on, more interest was directed towards alternative approaches to expectations analysis, mainly based on the bounded rationality paradigm...

This study compares the performance of various fixed and lifecycle portfolio strategies for the accumulation phase of retirement planning in emerging market countries. With an expected utility framework and a bootstrapped Monte Carlo procedure, we find that the majority of emerging market...

This article proposes a reading of the armed conflict from an evolutionary design that takes into account the concept of private protection agencies in the works of Schelling / Nozick / Gambetta. Their aim is to assess the dynamics of conflict and changes from its author's scientific output. A...

The underlying nature of forecast optimization makes the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) a framework that is theoretically consistent with the expectations formation produced by economic agents under well-defined assumptions of unbiased forecasts and efficient utilization of available...

We show that business cycles can emerge and proliferate endogenously in the economy due to the way economic agents learn, form their expectations, and make decisions regarding savings and production for future periods. There are no exogenous shocks of any kind to productivity or any other...

The aim of this paper is to simulate profit expectations as an emergent property using an agent based model. The paper builds upon adaptive expectations, interactive expectations and small world networks, combining them into a single adaptive interactive profit expectations model (AIE)....

This paper presents two computational techniques and shows that these techniques can improve tests for market efficiency based on profit of trading rules. The two techniques focus on interval estimates for expected profit per trade, in contrast to the standard approach that emphasizes point...