This article uses the functional decomposition approach to modeling Mäki (2009b) to discuss the importance of methodological considerations before choosing a modeling framework in applied research. It considers the case of agent-based models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models to...

Since times of Yule (1926), it is known that correlation between two time series can produce spurious results. Granger and Newbold (1974) see the roots of spurious correlation in non-stationarity of the time series. However the study of Granger, Hyung and Jeon (2001) prove that spurious...

As an asset is traded at fair value, its varying price trace an interesting trajectory reflecting in a general way the asset’s value and underlying economic activities. These trajectory exhibit jumps, clustering and a host of other properties not usually captured by Gaussian based models. Levy...

One advantage of Bayesian estimation is its solid theoretical ground on model comparison, which relies heavily upon the accurate calculation of marginal likelihood. The Gelfand-Dey (1994) and Chib (1995) methods are two popular means of calculating marginal likelihood. A trade-off exists between...

This article presents an agent-based model (ABM) of an Italian textile district where thousands of small firms specialize in particular phases of fabrics production. It is an empirical model because it reconstructs the communications between firms when they arrange production chains. In their...

During a long time, the Austrian Economic School was against any mathematical formalization in social and economic sciences because it would be opposed to an individualist point of view of social phenomenons. We try to find an quantitative individualism modelling way from a criticism of holist...

When advising policy we face the fundamental problem that economic processes are connected with uncertainty and thus policy can err. In this paper we show how the use of simulation models can reduce policy errors. We suggest that policy is best based on so-called abductive simulation models,...

L'objet de ce papier n'est pas tant de présenter les principaux algorithmes utilisés en modélisation économique - nombre de manuels font des présentations de meilleure qualité et plus exhaustives - que d'en proposer une vision critique. Les modèles économiques, et plus particulièrement...

The assumption we submit, because macroeconomic forcasts would be unperfect, is that behavioral equations doesn't enough describe economic behaviours through the capacity of reaction opposite to environment. Further, the forcaster belongs to his search-system, so that, may be, we must now...

In Part One of this paper we use the harmonic analogy of a musical octave to analyze mathematic ratios of U.S. real GNP. These ratios are generated by bringing together figures for U.S. real GNP over intervals of time – “spreads of years” – as numerator and denominator in a single...