This paper proposes a probabilistic model based on comovements and nonlinearities useful to assess the type of shock affecting each phase of the business cycle. By providing simultaneous inferences on the phases of real activity and inflation cycles, contractionary episodes are dated and...

An extensive literature has analyzed the implications of hidden shifts in the dividend growth rate. However, corresponding research on learning about growth persistence is completely lacking. Hidden persistence is a novel way to introduce long-run risk into standard business-cycle models of...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

A closed formula for the Hodrick & Prescott, HP, filter subject to linear restrictions is derived. This filter is also known as the HP filter with priors. When the formula is applied to the ordinary HP filter linear restrictions apply only within the sample. However, when this formula is applied...

This article is an attempt to understand the causal factors behind fluctuations in aggregate output. We find an absence of bidirectional causality between the gross domestic product residual and the gross domestic capital formation residual as well as between the GDP residual and the residual of...

The purpose of this comment is a critical evaluation of the empirical analysis made by Cresti (2005) and her finding that commercial barter behaves differently than corporate barter during the course of business cycles. Here, we correct the arbitrary replacement of the missing observations by...

This paper revisits the hysteresis and unemployment problem in Europe by using new data and some innovative methods. Blanchard and Summers are among first researchers to detect the existence of unemployment hysteresis and to attribute the hysteresis effects to the European unemployment problem...

In 1991 India chose to open her economy and formulated the New Economic Policy (NEP). Under the structural adjustment and reform programmes, the NEP aimed at promoting growth by eliminating supply bottlenecks that hinder competitiveness, efficiency and dynamism in the economic system This study...

By employing a parsimonious econometric approach, based on an ARIMA model, this study detects significant Islamic calendar effects on U.S. meat consumption. This surprising finding strengthens the assumption that the size of the Muslim community is considerably larger than assumed by U.S....