In this note, we revisit the univariate unobserved-component (UC) model of US GDP by relaxing the traditional random-walk assumption of the permanent component. Since our general UC model is unidentified, we investigate the upper bound of the contribution of the transitory component, and find it...

In the Chinese urban data, there is a stronger relationship between consumer behavior (measured by consumption income ratio or cy ratio) and consumer confidence (measured by Consumer Confidence Index or CCI), which implies expectation about the future plays an important role in domestic demand....

Our structural VAR shows that the new business formation in U.S. data has similar positive co-movement pattern as common aggregate variables in response to a favorable anticipated shock about technology. However, incorporating �firm dynamics into Jaimovich and Rebelo's (Jaimovich and Rebelo,...

In this note, we revisit the univariate unobserved-component (UC) model of US GDP by relaxing the traditional random-walk assumption of the permanent component. Since our general UC model is unidentified, we investigate the upper bound of the contribution of the transitory component, and find it...

In this note, we revisit the univariate unobserved-component (UC) model of US GDP by relaxing the traditional random-walk assumption of the permanent component. Since our general UC model is unidentified, we investigate the upper bound of the contribution of the transitory component, and find it...