We built a real business cycle model with inside money and passive monetary policy that shows some interesting features regarding interest rate dynamics and credit market behavior. We find that the model is stable, a feature that was difficult to find in the literature on passive money. We think...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

I document cyclical properties of aggregate measures of liabilities, equity, and leverage ratio in the U.S. financial sector and those of credit spread. I find that (i) liabilities and equity are procyclical, leverage ratio is acyclical, and credit spread is countercyclical, (ii) financial...

This paper conducts a quantitative analysis of the role of financial shocks and credit frictions affecting the banking sector in driving U.S. business cycles. I first document three key business cycle stylized facts of aggregate financial variables in the U.S. banking sector: (i) Bank credit,...

This paper develops a macroeconomic model of the interaction between consumer debt and firm debt over the business cycle. I incorporate interest rate spreads generated by firm and household loan default risk into a real business cycle model. I estimate the model on US aggregate data. This allows...

In 1946 the economist Arthur Burns defined a business cycle as a period of expansion occurring about the same time in many economic activities, followed by similar general recessions, contractions and revivals, which merge into the expansion phase of the next cycle. Cycles may take from one year...

Bond markets in emerging markets are illiquid as investors and issuers grapple with major microstructure and legal issues. The importance of bond markets as a source of finance has increased during the economic slowdown as companies diversified away from reliance on banks for funding and many...

Standard economics is known to be incapable of integrating the real and the monetary sphere. The ultimate reason is that the whole theoretical edifice is built upon a set of behavioral axioms. Therefore, the formal starting point is moved to structural axioms. This makes it possible to formally...

In his Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations Adam Smith (1776) considered the phenomenon of division of labor so enormously significant for the creation of a nation’s wealth that he devoted the first three chapters of his book to an investigation of this process. This is...

This paper develops an open economy portfolio balance model with endogenous asset supply. Domestic producers finance capital goods through credit and bonds in accordance with debt capital costs as well as through equity assets. Private households hold a portfolio of domestic and foreign assets,...