The successful active portfolio manager has to have at least two main competencies: Felicitous asset allocation choice and the competence to do so at the right point in time. Based on an extension of Grinold and Kahn’s Fundamental Law of Active Management, this paper describes a method to...

This paper is (over the formulas) self explaining . The measurement of economies no longer by GDP alone, but by an Index that includes other important factors as well, a So-cial factors relativized GDP. This index cuts out the part of the GDP that is long term fro-zen up by social transfers...

For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...

An incomplete manuscript on Statistics for economists.

We conduct a Monte Carlo study of the global regularity properties of the Normalized Quadratic model. We particularly investigate monotonicity violations, as well as the performance of methods of locally and globally imposing curvature. We find that monotonicity violations are especially likely...

The present work corroborates the existence of two anomalies that question the hypothesis of efficient markets in the Chilean stock market, these are the “effect weekend” or “effect monday” and the “effect month end”. Using the daily values of closing of stock-exchange index IPSA,...

The purpose of this paper is twofold: 1) to highlight the widely ignored but fundamental problem of ‘superpopulations’ for the use of inferential statistics in development studies. We do not to dwell on this problem however as it has been sufficiently discussed in older papers by...

The key socioeconomic indicators of Bangladesh have apparently experienced improvement since the advent of a new phase of democracy in 1991. This paper examines the impact of democracy on economic growth in Bangladesh using a cointegrated Vector Autoregressive model. Results suggest that...

This study explores the volatility models and evaluates the quality of one-step ahead forecasts of volatility constructed by (1) GARCH, (2) TGARCH, (3) Risk metrics and (4) Historical volatility. Volatility forecasts suggest that TGARCH performs relatively best in term of MSPE, followed by...

The spurious regression phenomenon in Least Squares occurs for a wide range of Data Generating Processes, such as driftless unit roots, unit roots with drift, long memory, trend and broken-trend stationarity. Indeed, spurious regressions have played a fundamental role in the building of modern...