There is growing evidence that fiscal consolidation may contribute to economic growth even in the short term. In this paper we review recent research on such non-Keynesian fiscal policy effects and apply panel data econometric techniques to examine the consequences of fiscal consolidation in the...

In most manufacturing industries output is adjusted in a lumpy way along three margins: shiftwork, weekend work, and closing a plant temporarily down. We incorporate such decisions into a dynamic general equilibrium model and study: (i) if such micro-level nonconvexities magnify business cycles;...

This paper deals with the implications of factor demand linkages for monetary policy design. We consider a dynamic general equilibrium model with two sectors that produce durable and non-durable goods, respectively. Part of the output of each sector serves as a production input in both sectors,...

This article explains why the housing and commercial real estate market are in a permanent disequilibrium. The real estate market converges towards the equilibrium, but it changes due to credit constraints, expectations and the long investment process. The cycles on this market are much more...

Which structural macroeconomic shocks have typified rising house prices? What ultimate factors have compromised financial stability and risk? These questions are answered for the Venezuelan economy by estimating a FAVAR model with macroeconomic, banking and asset price variables. We find that...

This paper presents a simple disequilibrium model in the primary housing market, calibrated to the Warsaw market. Our aim is to point out that the primary housing market, due to the long construction process is always in disequilibrium, which has important policy implications. We discuss the...

This article discusses and explains the dynamics of the primary housing market, focus-ing on housing supply, demand, price and construction costs dynamics. We focus our attention on the primary housing market, because it can create an excessive supply, which can cause distress to the economy....

This paper proposes an econometric model of the joint dynamic relationship between the yield curve and the economy to predict business cycles. We examine the predictive value of the yield curve to forecast both future economic growth as well as the beginning and end of economic recessions at the...

The literature on the yield curve deals with the capacity to predict the future inflation and the future real growth from the term structure of the interest rates. The aim of the paper is to verify this predictive power of the yield curve for the European Union at 16 countries in the 1995-2008...

This paper investigates theoretically how financial development affects the magnitude of financial amplification. Financial development yields two competing effects, balance sheet effects and shock cushioning effects. Depending on which of these forces dominates, we find that financial...