In this paper, we aim at forecasting the stochastic volatility of key financial market variables with the Kalman filter using stochastic models developed by Taylor (1986,1994) and Nelson (1990). First, we compare a stochastic volatility model relying on the Kalman filter to the conditional...

The effect of options’ introduction on underlying market is one of the frequently debated themes in financial research. A significant body of literature addresses the question of effects of options’ introduction. The critical review of the literature shows that there is no consensus among...

In many research studies it is argued that it is possible to extract useful information about future economic growth from the performance of financial markets. However, this study goes further and shows that it is not only possible to use expectations derived from financial markets to forecast...

US interest rates’ overnight reaction to macroeconomic announcements is of tremendous importance when trading fixed income securities. Most of the empirical studies achieved so far either assumed that the interest rates’ reaction to announcements is linear or independent to the state of the...

The Slovenian ministry of finance started to issue treasury bills regularly in 1998. Above all, it has been guided by a long-term interest to develop the money market although the financing ofhquidity and short-term deficit has also been important factor. A developed money market would not only...

This paper attempts to provide an economic interpretation of the factors that drive the movements of interest rates of bonds of different maturities in a continuous-time no arbitrage term structure model for Chile. The dynamics of yields in the model are explained by two latent factors, namely...

The expectations hypothesis implies that rational investors can predict future changes in interest rates by simply observing the yield spread. According to Mishkin (1990) the expectations theory can also be reformulated in terms of the ability of the spread to predict future inflation....

In this paper I discuss the modeling of the yield in discrete time. The popular Nelson-Siegel model and the Vasicek-factors model are presented in the same framework then it is simple to compare them.

Recent empirical studies suggests that affine models, a popular framework to analyse term structures of interest rates, are misspecified. This evidence is mainly based on time series properties of the data. This article re-examines this controversy, by investigating both cross-sectional and...

Very often the crisis induces changes in the linkages between the financial variables. This paper explores, through a Vector Autoregression model and Granger Causality tests, the impact of the global crisis on the relation between the Romanian stock prices and the interest rates. We found this...