Many macroeconomic forecasts and forecast updates like those from IMF and OECD typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast...

In this paper, we analyze the impacts of joint energy and output prices uncertainties on the inputs demands in a mean-variance framework. We find that an increase in expected output price will surely cause the risk averse firm to increase the inputs’ demand, while an increase in expected...

Leshno and Levy (2002) extend stochastic dominance (SD) theory to almost stochastic dominance (ASD) for {\it most} decision makers. When comparing any two prospects, Guo, et al.\ (2013) find that there will be ASD relationship even there is only very little difference in mean, variance,...

In this paper we first develop a theory of almost stochastic dominance for risk-seeking investors to the first three orders. Thereafter, we study the relationship between the preferences of almost stochastic dominance for risk-seekers with that for risk averters.

In this paper, we introduce a new pseudo-Bayesian model to incorporate the impact of a financial crisis and establish some properties of stock returns and investors' behavior during a financial crisis and subsequent recovery. Our approach provides a quantitative description for investors'...

To satisfy the property of expected-utility maximization, Tzeng et al. (2012) modify the almost second-degree stochastic dominance proposed by Leshno and Levy (2002) and define almost higher-degree stochastic dominance. In this note, we further investigate the relevant properties. We define an...

The traditional(plug-in) return for the Markowitz mean-variance (MV) optimization has been demonstrated to seriously overestimate the theoretical optimal return, especially when the dimension to sample size ratio $p/n$ is large. The newly developed bootstrap-corrected estimator corrects the...

This study establishes necessary conditions for Almost Stochastic Dominance criteria of various orders. These conditions take the form of restrictions on algebraic combinations of moments of the probability distributions in question. The relevant set of conditions depends on the relevant order...

This paper investigates the impact of multiplicative background risk on an investor's portfolio choice in a mean-variance framework. We also study the efficient boundary frontiers with and without risk-free security.

We study the optimal production of a competitive risk-averse firm under price uncertainty. We suppose that the firm is also regret-averse. For example, if market prices ex post turn out to be very high the firm might regret not producing more. If it turns out that the price is low the firm might...