This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other...

The paper attempts to analyse asymmetric effects of monetary policy in India using quarterly data from 1996-97Q1 to 2011-12Q4. It finds that an unanticipated hike and an unanticipated cut in policy rate have a symmetric impact of on real GDP growth, but differentially impact the components of...

The paper attempts to analyse the asymmetric effects of money supply and policy rate shocks in India using quarterly data from 1996-97Q1 to 2011-12Q4. It finds that both the shocks impact real output growth and inflation in the short-run, but have a differential impact among components of...

The formation of the European Union (EU) is the one of the biggest political – economic events of the last 50 years. The aim of this study is to develop EU economy functioning system dynamic model. Main research method is system dynamics. General scheme of EU economy system dynamic model is...

Central Banks have gained much credibility in controlling one important macroeconomic variable: inflation. This paper tries to examine the relation between inflation and other economic variables in Croatia by searching for the best forecasting model.

The study examines possibility of threshold effect of inflation on economic growth over the period of 2000-2009. Estimated threshold model indicates that there is a non-linear relationship between economic growth and inflation in the Azerbaijani economy and threshold level of inflation for GDP...

For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

In this study, the causal relationships between inflation, output growth and uncertainty have been re-examined for the Turkish economy. Based on the system-GARCH methodology, estimation results reveal that for the 1987M01 2008M09 investigation period with monthly data, the mutual Granger...

The paper focuses on the comparison of the direct and iterated AR predictors when Xt is a difference stationary process. In particular, it provides some useful results for comparing the efficiency of the two predictors and for extracting the trend from macroeconomic time series using the two...