We explore bifurcation phenomena in the open-economy New Keynesian model developed by Clarida, Gali and Gertler (2002). We find that the open economy framework can bring about more complex dynamics, along with a wider variety of qualitative behaviors and policy responses. Introducing parameters...

This paper develops an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model based on New-Keynesian micro-foundations. Alongside standard features of emerging economies, such as a combination of producer and local currency pricing for exporters, foreign capital inflow in terms of...

The short sale of a stock is motivated by financial profits an investor expects to gain from declining stock prices. Short interest, defined as the proportion of shares shorted to all outstanding shares for a given stock, represents the collective expectations of short sellers. While the...

We explore bifurcation phenomena in the open-economy New Keynesian model developed by Gali and Monacelli (2005). We find that the open economy framework brings about more complex dynamics, along with a wider variety of qualitative behaviors and policy responses. Introducing parameters related to...

This paper estimates and forecasts U.S. business cycle turning points with state-level data. The probabilities of recession are obtained from univariate and multivariate regime-switching models based on a pairwise combination of national and state-level data. We use two classes of combination...

This paper analyzes the dynamical properties of monetary models with regime switching. We start with the analysis of the evolution of inflation when policy is guided by a simple monetary rule where coefficients switch with the policy regime. We rule out the possibility of a Hopf bifurcation and...

This paper provides a DSGE model with firm entry. Simulations show that the model matches the synchronization of markups and entry observed in the data while at the same time reproducing empirically plausible moments for key macroeconomic variables. Sticky prices are essential for these results.

This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate. Model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical U.S. data vintages synchronized with the Fed’s Greenbook...

The importance of distribution costs in generating the deviations from the law of one price has been well documented. In this paper we show that a two-country flexible price dynamic general equilibrium model driven by exogenous innovations to technology, and with a localized distribution...

In this paper we examine the behavioral responses of key macroeconomic variables in Canada to exogenous innovations to investment specific technology. This is done by developing a stylized international real business cycle model which is simulated to explore its ability to shed new light on the...