Showing 31 - 40 of 2,487
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the Australian Industry Group / PricewaterhouseCoopers Performance of Manufacturing Index (Ai-PMI) as a tool for analysis. Particular interest focuses on the issue of how useful it is as an early signal of Australian business cycle turning points.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005616668
Endogenous business cycles can be generated using second-order linear equation systems. A generally accepted criticism of linear models is that only one value of the control parameter produces self-sustaining stable cycles. The problem therefore remains of accounting for the most salient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005835725
This paper presents the logic and structure of a small and parsimonious macroeconometric model designed for output gap and potential growth estimation in a data-poor environment. Such results can be useful in calculating the cyclically adjusted budget balances which are a key indicator for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011251882
I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650037
I present a consumption-based asset pricing model that is capable of matching the empirically observed Sharpe ratios of the aggregate market portfolio as well as the Fama-French value-minus-growth portfolio. The model also matches the level of the risk-free rate and the equity premium with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008685364
to asset classes a number of possible solutions are provided, like pension dividend, economic easing,foreign home buying …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011111570
Backus, Kehoe and Kydland (BKK 1992) showed that if international capital markets are complete, consumption growth correlations across countries should be higher than their corresponding output growth correlations. In stark contrast to the theory, however, in actual data the consumption growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005622064
This paper develops a macroeconomic model of the interaction between consumer debt and firm debt over the business cycle. I incorporate interest rate spreads generated by firm and household loan default risk into a real business cycle model. I estimate the model on US aggregate data. This allows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008693563
Several studies attributed the rise of household bankruptcy in the past two decades to the decline of social stigma associated with default. Stigma explanations, however, cannot account for the increase of credit availability during this period. I try to explain both of these facts as a result...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008562648
The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between increasing inequality and financial fragility in an agent based macroeconomic model. We analyse the effects of a non-linear relationship between wealth and consumption on the evolution of the economic system. Preliminary results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114106