Showing 1 - 10 of 2,813
This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed … from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation … Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other indicators of inflation expectations – 36 survey measures and the TIPS …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647210
The study aims at investigating, whether or not the cost channel of monetary policy is effective in Pakistan. The cost channel is one of the theoretical justifications of Price Puzzle, a phenomenon that has been observed in a number of empirical studies. Using Structural Vector Autoregression...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009223345
The paper focuses on the comparison of the direct and iterated AR predictors when Xt is a difference stationary process. In particular, it provides some useful results for comparing the efficiency of the two predictors and for extracting the trend from macroeconomic time series using the two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005668394
The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition defines the trend component in terms of the eventual forecast function, as the value the series would take if it were on its long-run path. The paper introduces the multistep Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, which arises when the forecast function is obtained by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005042687
his paper examines whether the CPI and real GDP for the U.S. exhibit nonlinear reversion to trend as recently concluded by Beechey and Österholm [Beechey, M. and Österholm, P., 2008. Revisiting the uncertain unit root in GDP and CPI: testing for non-linear trend reversion. Economics Letters...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008642687
The study critically analyzed the dynamic and simultaneous inter-relationship between inflation and its determinants in … root test and the result reveals that inflation rate, growth rate of real output and money supply, and real share of Fiscal … inflation and its determinants were examined usig the Augmented Engle-Granger (AEG) cointegration test and Error Correction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009397167
I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650037
This paper considers the application of long memory processes to describe inflation with seasonal behaviour. We use … inflation rates of four different countries, USA, Canada, Tunisia, and South Africa. The analysis is carried out using the … persistence is a common feature for inflation series. Note that neglecting the existence of additive outliers may possibly biased …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008595907
This study investigates the relationship between relative price variability and inflation in three regions in Malaysia … that the relative price variability has non-linear characteristic. In addition, inflation is also significant and … the relationship between the relative price variability and inflation is in the form of non-linear. The findings support …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008740581
Much of the US inflation forecasting literature deals with examining the ability of macroeconomic indicators to predict … the mean of future inflation, and the overwhelming evidence suggests that the macroeconomic indicators provide little or … no predictability. In this paper, we expand the scope of inflation predictability and explore whether macroeconomic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005836192