The purpose of the System Dynamics method is to study the relationship between structure and behavior in non-linear, dynamic systems. In such systems, the significance of various structural components to the behavior pattern exhibited, changes as the behavior unfolds. Changes in structural...

After entering the European Union (EU) Latvia faced new possibilities in international labor market. In 2004 several member states opened their labor markets to workers from Latvia. The largest amount of labor force went to Ireland, Great Britain and Sweden. In these countries salaries were...

This volume – Predicting Crisis: Five Essays on the Mathematic Prediction of Economic and Social Crises – is the first of three sets of essays. In this first set the economic and social history of the United States is shown to be a “system of movement,” i.e. a logical and mathematic...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

The main issue of this article is to discuss the question of ‘precarity’ in the context of the theory of social quality (see Beck et al, 2001), with which to pave the way for developing further the theoretical foundation of precarity. Societal practice is the main challenge this concept...

In Albers & Albers (Spring, 2013) we demonstrated that the historic development of U.S. real GNP, 1869-present, may be structured in recurring 14-year periods. A steady-state rate of growth of 3.4969% is thereby calculated, generating an increase in real GNP proportional to the famous “Golden...

Applied economists working with time series data face a dilemma in selecting between models with deterministic and stochastic trends. While models with deterministic trends are widely used, models with stochastic trends are not so well known. In an influential paper Harvey (1997) strongly...

This paper is (over the formulas) self explaining . The measurement of economies no longer by GDP alone, but by an Index that includes other important factors as well, a So-cial factors relativized GDP. This index cuts out the part of the GDP that is long term fro-zen up by social transfers...

The measurement of economies no longer by GDP alone, but by an Index that includes other important factors as well, a Social factors relativized GDP. Social factors relativized GDP: GDP – GDP x GINI = K_Index Written differently: (1 – GINI) x GDP = K_Index Inflation indexed Version: (1 –...