One of the challenges face a country or firm when deciding to lend a foreign country or firm is how to appraise the creditworthiness of that firm or country? It is experienced and commonly use of credit ratings established by Credit Rating Agencies (Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s and Pitch) as...

In this paper we present our experiences with the execution of structural economic models over the Grid using ”cloud computing”. We describe cases of distributed implementation and execution of occupational choice and financial deepening models of economic growth. We show how the...

A linear link between S&P 500 return and the change rate of the number of nine-year-olds in the USA has been found. The return is represented by a sum of monthly returns during previous twelve months. The change rate of the specific age population is represented by moving averages. The period...

This paper investigates the impact of the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy on both the accuracy of probabilistic forecasts and the sluggishness of economic growth. It first posits the Gaussian process Zt (indexed by the Hurst exponent H) as the output of a reflexive dynamic input/output system governed...

A model is presented to characterise the (optimal) demand for cash balances in deregulated markets. After the model of James Tobin, 1958, net balances are determined in order to maximise the expected return of a certain portfolio combining risk and capital. Unlike the model of Tobin, the prices...

An alternative theoretical setting is presented to characterise the money demand and the monetary equilibrium. Two main hypotheses are stated that contradict the assumptions normally sustained by scholars and policy-makers: National output is assumed to be a random variable, and people are...

I analyze a model with heterogeneous investors who have incorrect beliefs about fundamentals. Investors think that they are right at first, but over time realize that they are wrong. The speed of the realization depends on investor confidence in own beliefs and arrival of new information. The...

Econometricians had been blamed for the financial crises that occurred due to their giving a ‘false hope’ to investors and policy makers using untested theoretical assumptions. Therefore, econometricians had been challenged to reform their studies by grounding them more solidly on reality....

This paper deals with the CAPM-derived capital budgeting criterion, and in particular with Rubinstein’s (1973) criterion, according to which a project is profitable if the project rate of return is greater than the risk-adjusted cost of capital, where the latter depends on the project’s...

Tail hedging is a portfolio management strategy meant to reduce the risk of large losses. For an investor who holds a stock market index fund, the strategy entails buying out of the money put options on the index. Research suggests the strategy works well in practice and I explore the returns to...