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I evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of five models of Chinese and Indian energy consumption. The results are mixed, but in general the auto-regressive distributed lag and unobserved components models perform the best over multiple evaluation criteria. I then use these two models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114340
the West Texas Intermediate oil price) and 28% (for the Dubai oil price). Moreover, we find that the directional forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011108764
and other (industrial and services sectors) blocks. The model key role is to forecast energy consumption by separate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011258382
When building stochastic models for electricity spot prices the problem of uttermost importance is the estimation and … considered. With this paper we want to fill the gap and present a thorough study on estimation and forecasting of the LTSC of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011112241
Insights about electricity demand dynamics is fundamental for investment capacity, optimal energy policies, and a balanced electricity system. This paper presents an empirical analysis of the monthly Italian electricity demand since January 2001 to June 2012. In the first section we conduct the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114523
In this paper we assess the short-term forecasting power of different time series models in the electricity spot market. We calibrate autoregression (AR) models, including specifications with a fundamental (exogenous) variable - system load, to California Power Exchange (CalPX) system spot...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008562598
and other (industrial and services sectors) blocks. The model key role is to forecast energy consumption by separate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008568622
and other (industrial and services sectors) blocks. The model key role is to forecast energy consumption by separate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008645071
The forecast plays an important role in the planning, the decision-making and control in any domain of activity … (univariate models), that use only the information of its past values to forecast the future, can often predict future with more … accuracy than causal or multivariate models. In this paper, we model and forecast the offensive effectiveness of the soccer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789648
The concept of unforeseen events is considered as a part of a hypothesis of uncertain future. The applications of the consequences of the hypothesis in utility and prospect theories are reviewed. Partially unforeseen events and their role in forecasting are analyzed. Preliminary preparations are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011110243