This paper addresses the estimation of the nonparametric conditional moment restricted model that involves an infinite-dimensional parameter g0. We estimate it in a quasi-Bayesian way, based on the limited information likelihood, and investigate the impact of three types of priors on the...

Abstract Davidson and MacKinnon’s J-test was developed to test non-nested model specification. In empirical applications, however, when the alternate specifications fit the data well the J test may fail to distinguish between the true and false models: the J test will either reject, or fail to...

This paper discusses regression models with aggregated covariate data. Reparameterized likelihood function is found to be separable when one endogenous variable corresponds to one instrument. In that case, the full-information maximum likelihood estimator has an analytic form, and thus...

Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model is chosen. The results show that a...

In this paper we employ ML-II ε-contaminated class of priors to study the sensitivity of Bayes Reliability measures for an Inverse Gaussian (IG) distribution and Lognormal (LN) distribution to misspecification in the prior. The numerical illustrations suggest that reliability measures of both...

In this paper, we first re-visit the inference problem for interval identified parameters originally studied in Imbens and Manski (2004) and later extended in Stoye (2008). We take the general criterion function approach and establish a new confidence interval that is asymptotically valid under...

In this paper, we study partial identification of the distribution of treatment effects of a binary treatment for ideal randomized experiments, ideal randomized experiments with a known value of a dependence measure, and for data satisfying the selection-on-observables assumption respectively....

This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other...

This paper investigated the impact of Foreign Direct Investment on some selected macro-economic variables such as real GDP, gross fixed capital formation and unemployment. Data for the variables were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Statistical Bulletin. For the assessment of this...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...